Since today is the beginning of the Winter Meetings in Vegas, I figured I might as well get my thoughts in on what the Mets should do this offseason before the inevitable K-Rod signing. With Pat’s Eagles post upping the site’s credibility a thousand-fold, it’s probably my turn to bring it back down. And, like he said, no one’s going to read it anyway, so I’ve got nothing to lose – except hours of productivity at work (although I’d probably just be spending that time refreshing mlbtraderumors every 2 minutes anyway). 

While all the focus on the Mets this winter has been on the closer position, there are many holes in the club aside from the ninth inning. The Mets need to get one, if not two, Starting Pitchers, and the offense is buoyed by three studs surrounded with question marks. Carlos Delgado had a great portion of a season, and is only getting older, which probably means he’s in for at least a slight decline. At second, everyone knows about Luis Castillo’s absurd albatross of a contract and diminishing skills. Every Mets fan is hoping that Daniel Murphy can become an everyday second baseman, but the club insists he’ll be in left field, with the occasional spell at 1st. While I love Murphy, he doesn’t exactly measure up as an everyday corner outfielder, and even if in the planned platoon with Tatis, they’ll need more offense in the lineup to account for the lack of power from the corner positions. 

According to most accounts, the Mets have about $30 million to spend this winter give or take. That isn’t an extremely large number and I would be very hesitant to commit the bulk of that to a closer, especially a guy like K-Rod who is almost a sure bet to break down at some point, and has had diminishing peripheral stats for the past two years. 

So without further ado, here’s what I would do if I were Omar Minaya. 

Closer – To me, it seems fairly obvious that Kerry Wood is the guy the Mets should be targeting. Yes, he has a bad injury history, and he won’t be able to go more than an inning in most occasions. But he is believed to have the best stuff of the three premier guys on the market, he will likely cost the least amount of money, and is probably the most willing to sign a shorter term deal. Accompany that with the fact that he won’t be costing any draft picks, and I think it’s a no-brainer. And for those who care about makeup, he has been in pressure situations with the Cubs, and should be able to handle New York well and endear himself to the Mets fans. After Wood, I would probably lean towards Fuentes over K-Rod, although I’m sure that Minaya will be targeting and signing K-Rod. For him the formula is simple, he knows that everyone blames the bullpen for last year’s mini-collapse and so he’s going to sign the closer with the smallest perceived risk. If K-Rod breaks down, which I believe he will, then Minaya can simply fall back on the fact that he signed the all-time single season saves leader. But his job is to assemble the best baseball team, and I believe that Kerry Wood makes the Mets better than K-Rod will. That being said, if Minaya is able to sign K-Rod to a three year deal for under $13m annually, it could be worse. 

There have also been rumors of an Aaron Heilman trade to Colorado for Huston Street. The Rockies are said to be asking for both Heilman and Feliciano, which caused the Mets to break off talks. As much as I like Feliciano as a LOOGY, I think that trade actually makes sense. If you make the trade now, you can act as if Street is a solution in the ninth, which would enhance the team’s bargaining position with the FA closers. A combination of Street in the eighth and Wood/Fuentes/K-Rod in the ninth would certainly be an improvement. Then, as much as it pains me to say it, Scott Schoeneweis can probably be moved to a straight LOOGY where he belongs. Otherwise, I really like the prospect of Arthur Rhodes for a cool $2-4m at two years as the lefty, but it depends on how much money they’ll have left over. 

Starting Pitcher – There are a lot of second-tier starting pitchers on the market, and there have been lots of rumors that the Mets are interested in Jon Garland. Gross. The lone positive about Jon Garland is that he has been durable and thrown a lot of innings over the past few years, and that is not a reason to sign a guy. That was Scott Boras’ pitch as to why Barry Zito was such an ace a few years ago, and everyone knows how that turned out. Unless the price come way down on Derek Lowe, then it will be hard for the Mets to really upgrade their Starting Pitching over the long haul, but I think there are a couple good one-year options for the back of the rotation. My first choice for a 3-4 starter would be to sign Randy Johnson to a one-year incentives per start deal for about $10m. Unit pitched very well and was more durable than you would think for a guy who started the year on the dl. He was 6th in the NL in K/9 and 34th in IP. He’ll be motivated to get to his 300th win this season, and he has said that he wants to join a contending team. Granted his short stint with the Yankees wasn’t amazing, but I think he would fit in perfectly in the rotation, and should fit in nicely on a short term deal. My plan B to Johnson would probably be Randy Wolf, but only if he could be had for around $6-8 a year for two years. Then, the Mets can slide Jon Niese into the 5 spot in the rotation, and should also sign one or two middling veterans as backup. Someone like a Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia. 

Second Base – My dream scenario for this spot would be for the Mets to convince Rafael Furcal to slide over to second base and pair him with Reyes. He’s said to be asking for four years around $50m, which is definitely too much, but I think he could be had for something like three years at about $40m. However, signing Furcal, if accompanied with a closer and Randy Johnson will just about bring the Mets to their spending limit, and not allow them to address the offense in the COF. Furcal at second definitely upgrades the offense, and the Mets can go into the season with that as the only offensive upgrade. Or, they can stick with Luis Castillo and hope that one of the outfield bats comes out at the tail end of free agency that they can sign for a bargain. Perhaps Bobby Abreu, which would move Ryan Church either to left and Murphy as a 10th man type, or to be used a trade chip to continue to upgrade the pitching staff. The problem with Abreu is his terrible defense, which would be fine with Beltran and Church, two top defenders, but if played with Murphy/Tatis in Left could cause trouble. 

Going into next year, this  roster I’d like to see. 

Catcher – Brian Schneider, Ramon Castro, Robinson Cancel – certainly not a big fan of either, but there are few options at catcher in this offseason. There were talks that the Mets had thought about sending Schneider to Boston and then signing Varitek, which would have been a monumental waste of money. 

First Base – Carlos Delgado, Nick Evans
Second Base – Rafael Furcal, Argenis Reyes
Shortstop – Jose Reyes
Third Base – David Wright
Left Field – Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis
Center Field – Carlos Beltran
Right Field – Ryan Church, Endy Chavez

The last spot on the bench then probably goes to either Marlon Anderson or Robinson Cancel. 

Rotation

SP1 Johan Santana
SP2 Mike Pelfrey
SP3 John Maine
SP4 Randy Johnson
SP5 Jon Niese
SP6 Bartolo Colon
SP7 Bobby Parnell

CL Kerry Wood
SU Huston Street
BP Joe Smith
BP Brian Stokes
BP Duaner Sanchez – I think he actually has a good bounceback year, two years removed from surgery.
LOOGY Scott Schoenweis 
Long man Carlos Muniz/Nelson Figueroa/Brandon Knight

Lineup
1. Jose Reyes
2. Rafael Furcal
3. Carlos Beltran
4. David Wright
5. Carlos Delgado
6. Ryan Church
7. Murphy/Tatis
8. Schneider/Castro 

This would bring the Mets payroll right in at about $140m, where it’s expected to be, and I think gives them a pretty good shot at winning the NL East.