Well, the idea for this post sort of goes hand in hand with the premise behind the bizzaro-world rosters we put together, in that they both have no real relevance to the current sports world, but I do think this could be a little more interesting. I’ve always been fascinated by how the direction of a franchise can be completely altered by a chance occurrence, a stroke of luck, or one little thing going horribly wrong, and so I decided it could be an intriguing case study to go back and look at how everything might look so completely different now if one simple moment was changed.

As we know, the model for any franchise on how to completely turn things around in one offseason is the summer 2007 transformation of the Boston Celtics.  Ironically though that summer started out disastrously for the Celts as their dream of landing Kevin Durant or Greg Oden quickly became a nightmare. Though they had the 2^nd worst record in the NBA the previous season, the fickleness of the lottery slid them all the way down to the 5^th pick. Of course, 2 simple trades would quickly replace the dashed dreams of landing a young superstar with the sweet euphoria of a return to glory, but the question remains: What would have happened if the Celtics did land that top 2 pick that they once seemed destined for? How would the team look today?

First of all, let us take a look at the roster composition going into that offseason:

June 2007 Celtics

Paul Pierce

Al Jefferson

Wally Sczcerbiak

Delonte West

Ryan Gomes

Tony Allen

Gerald Green

Rajon Rondo

Allan Ray

Sebastian Telfair

Kendrick Perkins

Leon Powe

Brian Scalabrine

Theo Ratliff

For the purposes of this project, we will give the Celtics the 2^nd pick in the draft, and keep the Blazers at #1, because changing as little as possible just makes things easier to project as we move along. So as draft night approaches, we can assume that it’s fairly clear to the team that they are getting Kevin Durant with the 2^nd pick. In this scenario, the big question becomes what to do with Paul Pierce. After watching his brilliant playoff and finals performances, all of us gained a new found appreciation for Pierce, but looking back to June of ’07, he was still considered just a very good player coming off an injury, getting up there in age, and stuck on a bad team. His stock was nowhere near what it is today, so although the idea of teaming him with Durant and Jefferson seems like a winning proposition now, my best guess is that the Celtics would have attempted to move their star and start anew with a young core. That decision leaves us with a new dilemma: what do the Celtics get for Pierce?

As I mentioned, his stock was not as high as it is now, so the potential return would probably seem somewhat modest when compared with Pierce’s current value. Logically, I think the best fit at that time would have been the Bulls. If you remember, they were pursuing Kobe at the time, but their reluctance to trade Luol Deng made such a deal impossible (or at least that was the public perception). I could not find a way to do a proper salary check on this trade because it is a big complicated to begin with and also two years in the past, but I believe the package of Ben Gordon, Andres Nocioni, and the #9 pick would be the most realistic scenario. I realize Gordon and Nocioni were both restricted free agents at the time, but they were the rumored principles in a potential Kobe trade, so I will assume that with some tinkering, this deal could work. I realize the deal would have probably needed to be more complex (as is the case with most NBA deals), but I’ll stick with the simple version, so in summary:

Celtics Receive: Ben Gordon, Andres Nocioni, and #9 Pick

Bull Receive: Paul Pierce

Of course, this deal completely changes the course of NBA history. Pierce leaves the Celtics rather unceremoniously rather than leading them to a title and becoming one of the 6 or 8 greatest players in the history of the NBA’s greatest franchise. Similarly, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett may never get the chance to win their NBA title. It is impossible to say what exactly will happen to these three, but we do know that the team that we now associate with hem would have moved onward with a completely different trajectory without ever knowing what could have been.

Back in our alternate universe, The Celtics now possess the 2^nd pick, 9^th pick, and 32^nd pick. Obviously, they use the 2^nd pick on Kevin Durant. We can actually project the first 8 picks to go very similarly even with our changes because with Portalnd, Boston and Atlanta as the top 3; the only changes in the draft order would be the Bucks moving up to the 5^th pick and the Sonics dropping from their fortunate 2^nd pick down to the 6^th pick. This works our nicely for us, as we can assume the Bucks would take Yi at 5, while the Sonics would now get to take Jeff Green with their own pick rather than trading for him (and yes, I realize their circumstances changed drastically and so perhaps their pick would as well, but there is definitive proof they liked Green so as far as I know, he is still the most reasonable projection here). That leaves some interesting options for the Celtics at 9. Joakim Noah was the actual pick here by the Bulls, but the presence of Jefferson at the 4 makes him a poor fit. Danny Ainge clearly knew what he had in Rondo, as he refused to part with him to get Garnett, so we can assume he would not be looking for a PG, which rules out Acie Law and Rodney Stuckey. So despite having already picked Durant, the Celtics roster composition combined with the talent pool available makes a SF the most likely target, and the best one available is Thaddeus Young. Obviously, we know now that this is probably the best pick here, but it also fits with Danny Ainge’s track record of picking raw undeveloped guys with high ceilings (Jefferson, Perkins, Rondo, Green, etc.), so we’ll go with it. In reality, the Celtics used the 32^nd pick on Gabe Pruitt and then picked Glen Davis three picks later with the Sonics 2^nd rounder acquired in the Ray Allen trade, but because PF is now a bigger need, we will assume they take Davis at 32, so it leaves us with this roster:

Post 2007 Draft Celtics

C Kendrick Perkins

PF Al Jefferson

SF Kevin Durant

SG Ben Gordon

PG Rajon Rondo

Bench:

F Andres Nocioni

G Delonte West

F Thaddeus Young

C Glen Davis

G/F Gerald Green

F Ryan Gomes

G/F Wally Sczcerbiak

G Allan Ray

G/F Tony Allen

PG Sebastian Telfair

F Leon Powe

F Brian Scalabrine

C Theo Ratliff

(Players in Italics to be cut)

Obviously, there are too many players on this roster. Allan Ray would clearly be cut before training camp, and most people would also tell you the Celtics had had their fill of Telfair by this time, so he would likely either be cut as well or traded for something very insignificant. Theo Ratliff is attractive as an expiring contract, but as the Celtics are in full fledged rebuilding mode, it is doubtful they’d take on any significant player or salary, and though perhaps they could acquire some extra draft picks by helping out a team looking to get under the cap, we will keep it simple and have them simply release Ratliff to make room for the kids.

The next step is determining what the Celtics would have done in between the 2007 draft and the start of the regular season. With the amount of assets already stockpiled, it is doubtful they would have pursued any free agents of note, and so the only potential moves would be trades. The additions of Nocioni, Gordon, Durant and Young make at least two of the Green/Gomes/Allen trio expendable. The only reason I do not list Nocioni as a trade candidate as well is that he would have signed a new contract as a result of the sign and trade and therefore cannot be moved until midseason. There almost certainly would be a market for these guys, but I have no way of guessing what exactly it might have been, so the fairest value I can assign would be future 2^nd rounders. In this scenario, we will move Allen and Gomes, and hold onto Green because of his upside. That will essentially be it for the Celtics in the summer of 2007, and they will head into the season looking like this:

2007-2008 Celtics Roster

C Kendrick Perkins

PF Al Jefferson

SF Kevin Durant

SG Ben Gordon

PG Rajon Rondo

Bench:

F Andres Nocioni

G Delonte West

F Thaddeus Young

C Glen Davis

G/F Gerald Green

G/F Wally Sczcerbiak

F Leon Powe

F Brian Scalabrine

Ok, so this is where things get very difficult. What types of moves does this team make during the 07-08 regular season? What type of performance does this team put together over the course of the year? To keep things simple, I will assume the Celtics pretty much stick with what they have. Nocioni is probably the only appealing guy to contenders, but I can’t see anyone surrendering a whole lot for him. Sczcerbiak still has 2 years left on his deal at this point, so his contract really becomes valuable next year. As for the record, I don’t see this team being anywhere near a playoff spot, but there is an abundance of talent so they could conceivably be fairly competitive. The best case scenario I can see for them is being in the mix with teams like the Nets, Pacers, Kings, and Blazers which makes the 10^th pick a fair spot at which to stick them.

Another major issue with this team is the coaching situation. I think it’s fair to say that Doc Rivers would likely be fired after another poor season, or at least that the Celtics would have reason to go this route. The big coach on the market at this time was Mike D’Antoni who eventually chose the Knicks job over the Bulls job, but what would he have done if the Celtics were in the mix? Perhaps, they could not outbid the Knicks for his services, but if they could get anywhere close, the job would be more appealing as their roster situation is significantly better. The Celtics roster is perfect for a D’Antoni offense as guys like Durant, Gordon, Rondo, Young and even Jefferson would excel. So I am going to take the liberty of making D’Antoni’s decision for him and projecting him as the coach of the 2008 Celtics.

As for the draft, the player that makes the most sense at 10 would be Brook Lopez, who is a better fit in a D’Antoni offense then Kendrick Perkins. In the second round, the Celtics looking to add depth at PG select Sean Singletary. So after the 2008 draft, the team looks like this:

Post 2008 Draft Celtics

C Al Jefferson

PF Thaddeus Young

SF Kevin Durant

SG Ben Gordon

PG Rajon Rondo

Bench:

F Andres Nocioni

G Delonte West

C Brook Lopez

C Kendrick Perkins

C Glen Davis

G/F Gerald Green

G/F Wally Sczcerbiak

G Sean Singletary

F Leon Powe

F Brian Scalabrine

My guess is the D’Antoni would start Jefferson at the 5 just as the T’Wolves do now, which would allow him to play both Young and Durant at the forward spots. Nocioni, West, and Lopez are good fits off the bench, but the Celtics have the pieces in place to make one more big splash in the 2008 offseason. Their biggest need is one more guard, and with Szczerbiak’s expiring contract in hand, they have the ability to get a pretty good one. Obviously, we know that Charlotte was willing to move Jason Richardson at this point (assuming our tampering with history hasn’t altered the course of the franchise), which makes this deal relatively appealing for both teams (it works salary-wise):

Celtics Receive: Jason Richardson and Matt Carroll

Bobcats Receive: Wally Szczerbiak, Gerald Green, and Kendrick Perkins

This deal completes our Celtic team for the 2008-2009 Season. The acquisition of Richardson allows them to move Ben Gordon to the sixth man instant offense type role that he is probably best suited for. It also allows the team to use Delonte West as the backup PG rather than the backup at both guard spots. Thus, the Celtics head into the season looking like this:

2008-2009 Boston Celtics

Coach: Mike D’Antoni

C Al Jefferson

PF Thaddeus Young

SF Kevin Durant

SG Jason Richardson

PG Rajon Rondo

Bench:

G Ben Gordon

F Andres Nocioni

G Delonte West

C Brook Lopez

C Glen Davis

G Sean Singletary

F Leon Powe

F Brian Scalabrine

That is a team that should be fun to watch immediately and could certainly be a playoff team come spring time. And going forward, the continued development of Durant, Young, Rondo, and Jefferson combined with the wizardry of D’Antoni’s offense should allow this team to be a force for years to come. Obviously, they will need to get long term deals done with some of their younger guys but even with that in mind, they should also be able to add a significant piece in free agency in either 2009 or 2010. Of course, I realize Celtics fans would never trade last year’s title or this year’s potential playoff run, but this team could have provided tons of excitement for the next decade, so maybe, just maybe losing out on Durant wasn’t actually for the best after all.

Screw you, Ben Linus, I just changed the past.