We haven’t really spent a whole lot of time covering the playoffs but that certainly hasn’t been due to any lack of interest. At least for me, and I think Bo would agree, it just seemed that most of the matchups were so predictable that our opinions would’ve been exactly the same as everyone else’s. Of course, we, along with the vast majority of basketball fans and commentators, were proven very wrong. I was always in the Lakers over Cavs camp (mainly because of the difference between supporting casts and the fact that they just score in the halfcourt with so much less work), so I take a bit of solace in that, but I certainly never expected the Magic to get by Lebron and co. After watching them struggle with a mediocre Sixers team, and then need 7 to get past the undermanned Celtics, I thought the Cavs would put them out of their misery fairly easily. By the end of Game 1 though, it was already clear that most of us had severely overrated Cleveland. They had the luxury of playing two subpar teams in the first two rounds, and looking back, I’d say their dominance probably spoke more to the lack of quality competition than their own prowess.

All that said, I can’t take anything away from the Magic. They are one of the most entertaining basketball teams I’ve seen in a quite awhile. No matter whether they’re down 25 or up 25, the game is never out of reach. This is the boom or bust nature of their playing style, and it certainly makes for crazy ebbs and flows in just about every game they play. I see no reason why Howard shouldn’t be able to continue his rise to bona fide superstardom in this Laker series. Like everyone else, I was down on him after the Celts series, but now I’m starting to realize his lack of success in that series may speak more to just how good Kendrick Perkins has become.  I just don’t see any way Bynum/Gasol can duplicate Perkins’ superb defensive job over the course of a long series. If that’s the case and Howard does wreak havoc inside, then the Magic are going be very difficult to beat when they’re shooting the ball well. This makes it very unlikely the Lakers can get this series over with quickly.

The problem I see for Orlando, though, is they can’t afford these 15-20 minute stretches where they fall behind by 20 points or so. The Lakers are not going to go into the kind of offensive comas Cleveland went into, because they have so many different ways to beat you. As impressed as I was by the Magic in the Cavs series, Lebron was able to win 2 games essentially by himself. Kobe doesn’t have to do that. The Lakers can win without him getting 35-40 points a game. The other thing that bothers me about Orlando is Rafer Alston. I think he has a tendency to make some terrible decisions, and that could negate some of Orlando’s advantage at the PG spot. I would play Lee at the 1 with Pietrus at the 2 as much as possible (I’m not even going to try to guess what they can get out of Jameer Nelson).

The Lakers have also had their fair share of trouble in the last 2 rounds. Just like Orlando, they needed 7 games to get by Round 2 and 6 for Round 3, so I certainly think they’re beatable. They need Odom and Gasol to step up after a disappointing Finals last year, and I know that’s not a given, but they’re not playing a tough, physical, defensive-minded team like they did in 2008. There’s no reason those two guys shouldn’t be able to collectively get the job done this time around. Ariza also needs to continue his solid play, and they could really use at least one of Fisher, Farmar, and Vujacic to contribute something in this series, as those three have been awful for most of these playoffs.

So obviously, there’s plenty of reasons I think they can fail, and I think they may be pushed to the very brink in this series. At the end of the day, though, I don’t see Kobe letting them lose. I know that sounds cliche, and is exactly the same thing we heard about Lebron a few weeks ago. The difference is that Kobe has the pieces around him, and maybe more importantly, knows he’s running out of chances. I loved the way he played in those last two games against Denver, and I’d expect a similar sort of fire from him through the next 2 weeks. He’s left the impression this entire year that he’s leaving something in the tank. Unlike Lebron, he’s learned how to score without overexerting himself every possession, and so I’m expecting a similar sort of control the first few games of this series just like we saw against the Nuggets. Once we get to the last few games of what I see as a long series, that all changes. I see Orlando getting to a Game 7, but Kobe kicking it into overdrive for 48 minutes to finally knock out the Magic after their improbable run and cement himself as one of the greatest of all time. Nothing in this series, except maybe a sweep either way, would really suprise me, but my pick is Lakers in 7, and I’m looking forward to sitting back and watching how this thing plays out.