Pat’s Big Board: NBA Draft Top 15

19Jun09

I’ve already talked about Rubio vs. Griffin ad nauseum and I posted my thoughts on a few other players a couple weeks ago, so in the interest of keeping this post from being absurdly long, I will only comment on the prospects I have not previously mentioned.

1. Ricky Rubio

2. Blake Griffin

3. Brandon Jennings- I actually initially had him ahead of Griffin, but ultimately decided I couldn’t quite rationalize it. I honestly think he has the highest ceiling of anybody in this draft though. He could be a superstar. He’s a freaky athlete in the same way as a Derrick Rose or Rajon Rondo, and while I disagree with his assertions that he’s a better prospect than Rubio, it is an undeniable fact that he’s got more physical tools. This gives him a margin for error that Rubio doesn’t have. At the same time though, Rubio is a terrific passer with terrific court vision and a great feel for the game, while Jennings is prone to hogging the ball and making careless, lazy decisions when he does choose to pass it. If you put Rubio’s head on Jennings’ body, you have a potential Hall of Famer (and the 2nd weirdest looking guy in NBA history, narrowly losing out to Charlie Villanueva). Most of Jennings weaknesses are at least somewhat correctable though, and if he manages to do just that, he could be right in the same breath as guys like Rose, Rondo, and Harris. And even if he doesn’t conform his game properly to being a playmaking point guard, he could still be a quality Monta Ellis type combo guard.

4. Tyreke Evans- Can play 3 positions. Can guard 3 positions. If he can develop a more consistent jumpshot, he’ll be a very good player. I think he’s more of a sure bet than Jennings, but his ceiling isn’t quite as high.

5. Jordan Hill- Best center prospect in the draft (and he’s very much a center in today’s NBA). He’s a bit raw and he’s never going to be in that Jefferson/Howard/Stoudemire class, but he should be solid as a poor man’s version.

6. Jonny Flynn- If he were 6’2, he would be right there with Jennings and Rubio. He’s a speedy, high energy guy, and because he’s closer to a finish product, I actually think he could be on the shortlist for rookie of the year (provided he ends up in a good situation of course)

7. Earl Clark

8. James Johnson- Could be one of the bigger steals of the draft if he falls into the 20’s like some project. He’s already got an NBA body. He’s athletic and tough. He can score inside or out. And when he tries, he can guard 3 positions. I don’t see any scenario where he shouldn’t be a contributor as a rookie.

9. Stephen Curry

10. Gerald Henderson- I hate Duke and everyone associated with their basketball program, but I’m going to reluctantly admit that I think he’s a bit underrated heading into this draft. Another guy who should be able to become a legit rotation player fairly quickly.

11. Jrue Holliday

12. Demar Derozan- Like Holliday, he was far from overly impressive in a weak Pac-10 and so I can’t imagine him helping a team much next year, but by all accounts, he has the potential to become a starting caliber 2-guard at some point in the future. In a weak draft such as this one, that potential should equate to a sure lottery pick.

13. Sam Young- He is what he is. He’s old for a draft prospect, so he’s not going to get a whole lot better than he is now, but he’s big, he can shoot, and he can defend. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a starter for a good NBA team, but he can definitely be a 7th or 8th man, perhaps as early as next year.

14. Jeff Teague- He definitely could’ve used another year in college after essentially disappearing down the stretch last season. This a deep point guard class, and to me, Teague is the most unique of all of them. Even though he’s 6’2, he doesn’t really have the game of a small player. Guys like Flynn, Rubio, Curry, Lawson, Maynor, etc. all sort of look like the smoothest guy on the court. Teague’s not really like that. His game reminds me more of James Harden’s (for lack of a better comp.) than anyone in the point guard group. He’s not a smooth ballhandler, but he’s quick enough and stong enough (at least in college) to get by defenders. He’s not a dead on shooter and his form is not pretty, but it goes in often enough that you have to respect him from outside the three point line. He’s not a great passer, but he’s also relatively unselfish. I don’t see him as a star PG like some of these other guys may become, but on the right team, he could be pretty damn effective. I think if you throw him into the Lakers PG group for instance, he could be starting by the end of next season, and the great thing about Teague is he’s a good enough scorer to play the 2 occasionally. So while he’s far from the best PG in this draft, I also think he’s one of the few without a glaring weakness. Whether it’s size, shooting, ballhandling, defense, decision making, etc., he’s solid (if unspectacular) across the board.

15. Dajuan Summers- The bottom line for me is that he’s 6-9 with a jump shot. My opinion has changed on him more than anyone else in this draft since the end of the college season. Perhaps, it’s subconsciously to do with Rashard Lewis’s playoff performance (not that I think he’s ever going to be nearly as good, he’s just the closest thing in this class), but the more I see of this guy, the more he grows on me. I doubt he’ll ever be a starter, but at this point in this weak draft, a guy with one well defined skill and an NBA body is a valuable commodity.

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