Pat’s AFC Preview

19Sep09

Well, unlike Bo, I did not pick every game on the NFL schedule (I’m actually going to have to go ahead and diagnose him with some form of OCD for doing so. The 2010 baseball schedule came out this week. Have you started on that yet?). Because I didn’t really formulate any specific projections beforehand, I can’t deny that the first week did have some effect on my predictions. I think you’ll notice, however, that most of my picks make it seem like I didn’t even watch football last week, let alone allow myself to be completely swayed by it. I did not plan it that way, but I decided to stick to my guns on several teams.

AFC East

1. Patriots 12-4: I wouldn’t read too much into last Monday night. First of all, I think Buffalo is going to be better than people think. Secondly, I think Belichick may have out-thought himself a little bit in trying to hide some of the playbook last week so he can more easily embarass the Jets this week. They do have some issues on the offensive line and on defense, but as long as Brady stays on the field, they’re going to win between 11 and 14 games.

2. Bills 9-7: I’ve liked the Bills as a sleeper all offseason, and I have to admit I was pretty disappointed they didn’t put away the Pats last week. I feel like that bitter ending combined with Dick Jauron being mildly autistic could kill this season before it gets off the ground. I’m going to stick with them though. I think Trent Edwards is better than people think, and he has plenty of weapons to work with. The defense should be pretty good as well, so I’d expect this team to, at the very least, be competitive all year. I actually have them sneaking in the playoffs.

3. Jets 7-9: I was impressed with the Jets on Sunday, but I’m not quite buying into the hype just yet. The Texans lost to the Ravens 41-13 last year in Houston. I think that’s a pretty good indication that, for whatever reason, they have trouble blocking that style of defense. I’ll need to see the Jets play well against the Pats this coming Sunday before I buy into them as a playoff team. Mark Sanchez is not going to be Matt Ryan as a rookie. He’s going to show plenty of flashes, but I can’t imagine the consistency being there this early in his career. I could buy him as a 2008 Flacco which I guess is what Rex Ryan is shooting for, but the problem with that is the Jets D will not be what the Ravens’ was a year ago.

4. Dolphins 5-11: I could see them getting to 8 wins, but I can’t imagine them being a major factor this season. Decent team in a tough division that now has to play a first place schedule instead of a last place schedule. My guess is Chad Henne is starting by Week 5.

AFC North

1. Bengals 10-6: I know what you’re asking and the answer is no, I did not get a labotomy in the last 45 seconds. Everyone knows there’s going to be a couple of teams coming out of nowhere this year. I’d settled on this division a long time ago as the place for one of those Cinderella stories. I’d been going back and forth between the Ohio teams all offseason, but the moment I found out Brady Quinn would be starting in Cleveland, my mind was made up. The heartbreaker against Denver, though the stupidity of the defenisve alignment on the Stokely play nearly made me vomit out of sheer disbelief, was not enough to change my mind on this team. The defense is pretty good, and if Carson Palmer stays on the field, the offense should be fine as well. I really think this division is there for the taking, so fuck it, let’s go Bengals.

2. Ravens 9-7: I really like what the Ravens are building offensively, Flacco and Rice particularly, and I think they are close to entering a new era where their offense is actually the unit carrying the team. The problem is they’re in between this year. Their defense will take a step back, and although they will still be pretty good, I don’t see them anywhere near dominant. And while the offense will show glimpses of brilliance, I don’ t think this group is ready to become a consistent top 10 unit.

3. Steelers 8-8: The big secret about the Steelers is that they really weren’t that good last year. They were decent and everything broke right for them . I really think they would’ve lost to Tennessee or Philly if they had to play either team. In other meaningless what if scenario news, I think Yokozuna would still be alive today if he hadn’t fell off the ropes at Wrestlemania 10. The big guy never got over that. Trust me. Anyway, I think this year we go back to the good old days when the Super Bowl champion missed the playoffs the next season. I hate their O-Line, their running backs are mediocre, and they’ve already lost their best player for half the season.

Browns 5-11: If they start Derek Anderson, I think they could be a solid team. That’s how dumb I think starting Brady Quinn is. If he played at like Michigan State or Tennessee, would he even be considered for a starting job this year? Seriously, am I crazy or does the Notre Dame bias actually contaminate coaching decisions in the NFL?

AFC South

Titans 11-5: They were the best team in football last season, and I actually think the fact that they lost early may help them this season. I love their defense. I love their running backs. I love Kenny Britt. Their other skill guys are solid, their O-Line is good. I know people question whether Collins can get it done again, but I think he’ll be fine, and I actually think Vince Young is ready for another shot if he can’t.

Texans 10-6: Another team I’m sticking with after a bad week 1. Like I said, I think they just caught a bad matchup against that Ravens/Rex Ryan defense. This offense will be very good. And they have the pieces to be above average on defense. I’ve flip flopped a few times on this team, but ultimately decided that I do buy into the hype even after the Jets game.

Colts 8-8: I think this is finally the year the Colts slip up. They have no depth at receiver. Their offensive line has taken some hits. Their defense is still nothing special. And I think Jim Caldwell might prove to be a moron. He was a bad college coach, I can tell you that much. It’s never smart to pick against Peyton Manning, but I’m going to do it anyway.

Jaguars 6-10: I actually think they’re a pretty good team. I just like the other three teams in this division better. I think if they get a few guys swinging axes around in the locker room, they could make a playoff run.

AFC West

1. Chargers 10-6: I agree with most of what Bo said about this team. I’m sick of hearing that they’re the most talented team in the league. It’s just patently false. LT is a mediocre back at this point, the O-Line is already beat up, and their supposedly vaunted defense was atrocious last year and has several players (Merriman, Phillips, Cromartie) living mainly off reputation at this point. All that said, they’re the best team in this joke of a division, and I’d be shocked if they didn’t sleepwalk into the playoffs. I do have to disagree with Bo on one thing. Phillip Rivers is very good. If this team traded quarterbacks with anyone else in the division, it would change my pick.

2. Chiefs 8-8: They don’t have the worst roster in the league. In fact, they don’t even have the worst roster in the state of Missouri. They also get the biggest coaching bump in the league this year. They may still have a beatup racecar, but at least the driver isn’t Helen Keller anymore. Let’s remember that with Herm Edwards fresh in Jets fans’ memory, Eric Mangini was hailed as a genius. I think Chiefs fans are in for a similar sensation during this first season under Todd Haley, though I think he may have similar nutjob tendencies as Mangini that get old rather quickly. Anyway, they were tied with Bo’s AFC Champion with 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter and Brodie Croyle playing quarterback. I think this team will be a solid thorn in the side type all year long, and stay in the playoff mix into December.

3. Raiders 7-9: I actually like their defense and I like the speed they now have on offense. The problem is Jamarcus Russell is wildly inconsistent. I can’t imagine them being able to get over .500 with him under center. At least not yet.

4. Broncos 4-12: Completely disagree with Bo on this team. I think they’re in for a very long season. Kyle Orton sucks, I think McDaniels brought in too many old players to supplement what he inherited, and also Kyle Orton sucks.

Wild Card: Bills over Chargers, Texans over Bengals

Divisional: Pats over Bills, Texans over Titans

AFC Championship: Pats over Texans

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